24 comments
252 forecasters
Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?
60%chance
51% this week
88 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?"?
resultNo
89 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?"?
resultYes
1 comment
2 forecasters
What share of the popular vote will each party receive in the next South African general election (2029)?
African National Congress (ANC)80.1
Democratic Alliance (DA)24.6
Mkonto weSizwe (MK)22.2
14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
0 comments
10 forecasters
Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?
0 comments
7 forecasters
How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?
202551.7
202649.6
202749
0 comments
6 forecasters