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condition

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

16 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

68%
68%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

1%
1%
3
1 comment1
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies?

AAPLresult: 1.57 $
AMDresult: 0.54 $
AMZNresult: 1.68 $
and 4 others

Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?'?

resultNo

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

8
2 comments2
AI Pathways Tournament

Before 2031, will a G7 country have an active, publicly-funded UBI pilot program covering at least 25,000 people?

Key Factor

AI-induced job losses drive UBI consideration

25%chance
8% this week

Key Factor

AI-induced job losses drive UBI consideration

By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?

30%chance
20% this week

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

Key Factor

Humanoid shape and arms are two of the three main shapes of current robotics

41%chance
8% this week

Key Factor

Humanoid shape and arms are two of the three main shapes of current robotics

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Not before 203156.8%
2029 or 203022.5%
2027 or 202815.4%
and 1 other

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

Key Factor

David Sacks opposes AI safety regulations

45%chance
15% this week

Key Factor

David Sacks opposes AI safety regulations