Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

When will 5 gigatons carbon capture in a year at a price of less than $10 per ton be achieved?

2054 Year (2044 - 2064)

9

9 forecasters

2054 Year

(2044 - 2064)

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

20% chance

4

45

45 forecasters

20%chance

In 2030, what proportion of UK's energy consumption will come from overseas electrical connectors versus battery storage?

0.59 (0.463 - 0.694)

2

13

13 forecasters

0.59

(0.463 - 0.694)

When will fossil fuels make up less than 50% of global primary energy consumption?

Nov 2050 (Jun 2041 - Nov 2064)

22

63

63 forecasters

Nov 2050

(Jun 2041 - Nov 2064)

Five years after AGI, what will be global carbon emissions?

33.6B billion tonnes (22.5B - 43.2B)

2

24

24 forecasters

33.6B billion tonnes

(22.5B - 43.2B)

How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2050 in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?

40.6 Gt CO₂e (25.5 - 58.7)

2

8

8 forecasters

40.6 Gt CO₂e

(25.5 - 58.7)

Will China's CO2 emissions peak before 2030?

78.5% chance

10

59

59 forecasters

78.5%chance

The Colorado River and the Southwestern US Under Climate Change

10

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

40% chance

11

54

54 forecasters

40%chance

What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years?

9

37

37 forecasters

Economist 2021 Series Announcement

8

What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years?

11

59

59 forecasters

What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?

10.1% (6.16 - 15.6)

16

47

47 forecasters

10.1%

(6.16 - 15.6)

50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?

result: no

23

145

145 forecasters

ResolvedNo

What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?

5

67

67 forecasters

What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

1

4

4 forecasters

Will more than 65% of energy come from renewable sources?

%chance

What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?

6

31

31 forecasters

Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?

result: yes

4

13

13 forecasters

ResolvedYes

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

29

191

191 forecasters

What will annual CO₂ emissions in the United States be (in tonnes, and including land use change) in the following years?

21

21 forecasters

Five years after AGI, what will be humanity’s energy consumption?

468k TWh (285k - 1.16M)

5

28

28 forecasters

468k TWh

(285k - 1.16M)