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Economist 2021 Series Announcement

8

Renewables Forecasting

23

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

40% chance

11

54

54 forecasters

40%chance

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

23

138

138 forecasters

What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?

5

67

67 forecasters

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, what will be the change in the energy transition metal index for December of 2027 relative to December 2020?

1

17

17 forecasters

In 2030, what proportion of UK's energy consumption will come from overseas electrical connectors versus battery storage?

0.59 (0.463 - 0.694)

2

13

13 forecasters

0.59

(0.463 - 0.694)

What will net U.S. geothermal electricity production be in the year 2026, in GWh?

17.2k GWh (15.1k - 19.6k)

8

11

11 forecasters

17.2k GWh

(15.1k - 19.6k)

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

24% chance

7

44

44 forecasters

24%chance

What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years?

9

38

38 forecasters

Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?

51% chance

15

104

104 forecasters

51%chance

When will 5 gigatons carbon capture in a year at a price of less than $10 per ton be achieved?

2054 Year (2044 - 2064)

1

9

9 forecasters

2054 Year

(2044 - 2064)

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10% chance

35

294

294 forecasters

10%chance

What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years?

11

60

60 forecasters

50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?

result: no

23

145

145 forecasters

ResolvedNo

What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

1

6

6 forecasters

Will more than 65% of energy come from renewable sources?

%chance

What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?

6

32

32 forecasters

Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?

result: yes

4

13

13 forecasters

ResolvedYes

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

29

191

191 forecasters

What will annual CO₂ emissions in the United States be (in tonnes, and including land use change) in the following years?

22

22 forecasters

Five years after AGI, what will be global carbon emissions?

34.5B billion tonnes (23.1B - 44.1B)

2

24

24 forecasters

34.5B billion tonnes

(23.1B - 44.1B)