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Will the UK Parliament approve the target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 87 per cent by 2040?

80% chance

5

5 forecasters

80%chance

What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?

10% (5.91 - 15.6)

16

47

47 forecasters

10%

(5.91 - 15.6)

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

30% chance

7

44

44 forecasters

30%chance

Economist 2021 Series Announcement

8

In the following years, how much energy will be used (in terawatt-hours) by data centers?

3

4

4 forecasters

What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years?

9

37

37 forecasters

How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from wind power worldwide in the year 2030?

3986 TWh (3169 - 4971)

4

24

24 forecasters

3986 TWh

(3169 - 4971)

Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?

5% chance

2

19

19 forecasters

5%chance

What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?

6

32

32 forecasters

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

29

192

192 forecasters

Will renewable energy have a higher energy production share in the US than combined fossil fuels and nuclear in any month before 2050?

75% chance

5

21

21 forecasters

75%chance

Will renewable energy contribute between 25% and 48% to global electricity production in 2030?

95% chance

22

152

152 forecasters

95%chance

In 2030, what proportion of UK's energy consumption will come from overseas electrical connectors versus battery storage?

0.608 (0.46 - 0.734)

2

13

13 forecasters

0.608

(0.46 - 0.734)

What will net U.S. geothermal electricity production be in the year 2026, in GWh?

17.2k GWh (15.1k - 19.6k)

8

11

11 forecasters

17.2k GWh

(15.1k - 19.6k)

Will renewable energy contribute 25% or less to global electricity production in 2030?

2.5% chance

15

135

135 forecasters

2.5%chance

When will fossil fuels make up less than 50% of global primary energy consumption?

Nov 2050 (Jun 2041 - Nov 2064)

21

63

63 forecasters

Nov 2050

(Jun 2041 - Nov 2064)

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

23

136

136 forecasters

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, what will be the change in the energy transition metal index for December of 2027 relative to December 2020?

1

17

17 forecasters

Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?

50% chance

14

106

106 forecasters

50%chance

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

22% chance

20

148

148 forecasters

22%chance

What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years?

11

59

59 forecasters

How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?

1.29 (0.996 - 1.64)

4

34

34 forecasters

1.29

(0.996 - 1.64)

What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?

5

67

67 forecasters

50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?

result: no

23

145

145 forecasters

ResolvedNo