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Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

6

Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

98% chance

17

17 forecasters

98%chance

When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a GPT-4.1 scale model by OpenAI?

21 Jul 2027 (16 Feb 2026 - Dec 2031)

2

2 forecasters

21 Jul 2027

(16 Feb 2026 - Dec 2031)

When will OpenAI IPO?

20 Apr 2027 (21 Jan 2027 - 28 Jul 2027)

1

7

7 forecasters

20 Apr 2027

(21 Jan 2027 - 28 Jul 2027)

Will a human be #1 on the leaderboard of MarketPulse on August 25, 2026?

8

8 forecasters

%chance

Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

46% chance

2

122

122 forecasters

46%chance

When will an autonomous machine orchestrator for Command and control be fielded by a G-20 state?

>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

10

10 forecasters

>Jan 2050

(>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?

20 Jul 2026 02:35 (15 Jun 2026 - 06 Sep 2026)

10

31

31 forecasters

Resolved16 Jul 2026 12:00 UTC

When will an autonomous machine governor for Force generation be fielded by a G-20 state?

>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

10

10 forecasters

>Jan 2050

(>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

98.2% chance

33

177

177 forecasters

98.2%chance

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

15 Oct 2028 (22 Jan 2027 - Aug 2032)

224

624 624 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

15 Oct 2028

(22 Jan 2027 - Aug 2032)

When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?

11

17

17 forecasters

When will an autonomous machine orchestrator for Manoeuvre, fire, and effects be fielded by a G-20 state?

Aug 2039 (Apr 2034 - Nov 2047)

10

10 forecasters

Aug 2039

(Apr 2034 - Nov 2047)

When will an autonomous machine governor for Alliance management be fielded by a G-20 state?

>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

10

10 forecasters

>Jan 2050

(>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

When will an autonomous machine orchestrator for Information effects be fielded by a G-20 state?

Jun 2036 (Apr 2032 - Aug 2043)

10

10 forecasters

Jun 2036

(Apr 2032 - Aug 2043)

Will OpenAI or Hugging Face publish a completed technical report on the July 2026 breach investigation before August 7, 2026?

12% chance

140

140 forecasters

12%chance

When will an autonomous machine combatant in the Cyber domain be fielded by a G-20 state?

01 Apr 2028 (07 May 2027 - 02 Sep 2029)

10

10 forecasters

01 Apr 2028

(07 May 2027 - 02 Sep 2029)

Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.

4

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

1% chance

2

82

82 forecasters

1%chance

When will an autonomous machine orchestrator for Intelligence be fielded by a G-20 state?

Nov 2031 (18 May 2029 - Jan 2036)

10

10 forecasters

Nov 2031

(18 May 2029 - Jan 2036)

When will an autonomous machine combatant in the Land domain be fielded by a G-20 state?

Sep 2036 (May 2032 - Aug 2042)

10

10 forecasters

Sep 2036

(May 2032 - Aug 2042)

When will an autonomous machine combatant in the Maritime domain be fielded by a G-20 state?

Feb 2032 (31 Jul 2029 - Sep 2036)

10

10 forecasters

Feb 2032

(31 Jul 2029 - Sep 2036)