Which AI lab's model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 1, 2026?174174 comments180180 forecasters
How many bots will finish in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026?5 bots (4 - 6)23737 comments107107 forecasters5 bots (4 - 6)
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance99 comments33 forecasters25%chance
How many months behind the frontier will the best Chinese open-weights AI model be at the end of 2028?8.32 months (6.63 - 10.4)0 comments55 forecasters8.32 months (6.63 - 10.4)
Will the US Department of Defense award a contract worth more than $250 million for autonomous or uncrewed ground robots before 2029?90% chance0 comments55 forecasters90%chance
Will a Space-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance1313 comments44 forecasters25%chance
Will a Space-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance88 comments33 forecasters10%chance
Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?555 comments2424 forecasters
Will an Air-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?40% chance44 comments33 forecasters40%chance
Will a Cyber-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?70% chance55 comments33 forecasters70%chance
Will an Electromagnetic spectrum-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance33 comments33 forecasters20%chance
Will a Land-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?22.5% chance33 comments22 forecasters22.5%chance
Will a Maritime-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?26% chance22 comments22 forecasters26%chance
Will a Land-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?30% chance11 comment11 forecaster30%chance
Will a Maritime-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
Will an Electromagnetic spectrum-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance11 comment11 forecaster20%chance
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?50% chance11 comment11 forecaster50%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance11 comment11 forecaster20%chance
Will a Manoeuvre, fire, and effects-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
Will an Information effects-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?30% chance11 comment11 forecaster30%chance
Will a Sustainment-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?5% chance11 comment11 forecaster5%chance