3 comments
56 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet29.7%
OpenAI25.8%
Anthropic17.3%
96 comments
89 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 5.70% on 2025-10-18 for the Metaculus question "In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?"?
resultNo
3 comments
7 forecasters
When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?
Current estimate
13 Jan 2027
0 comments
98 forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
Latest estimate
46.3%
This question is closed for forecasting.
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
9 forecasters
What percentage of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
0.543%
0 comments
95 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
100 forecasters
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
91 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 11.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question "Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?"?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.