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Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?

31.5% chance

111

111 forecasters

31.5%chance

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 Winners!

5

Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?

62.5% chance

2

2 forecasters

62.5%chance

Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?

35% chance

-7

66

66 forecasters

35%chance

Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?

25% chance

99

99 forecasters

25%chance

Will Claude Mythos or a similar model be publicly released before September 2026?

80% chance

2

124

124 forecasters

80%chance

Will any model evaluated by Epoch AI score at least 40.0% on FrontierMath Tier 4 before May 1, 2026?

result: no

124 124 comments

121

121 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will OpenAI publicly file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 1, 2026?

4

4 forecasters

%chance

When will Google first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN uplift level 1?

22 Nov 2030 (27 May 2029 - Dec 2031)

9

9 forecasters

22 Nov 2030

(27 May 2029 - Dec 2031)

Will any AI model achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before June 1, 2026?

result: no

144

144 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

24% chance

1

814

814 forecasters

24%chance

Will the European Commission’s AI Office publish a revised draft (a new version) of the general-purpose AI (GPAI) code of practice?

result: no

113 113 comments

114

114 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Platform feature suggestions

113

3.3k 3.3k comments

Will the U.S. Copyright Office publish a final, non-prepublication version of AI Report Part 3 before April 15, 2026?

result: no

126 126 comments

127

127 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?

28% chance

2

119

119 forecasters

28%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

53

53 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

56

56 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 33.30% on 2026-05-16 for the Metaculus question "Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?"?

result: no

94

94 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Market Pulse Challenge 26Q1: Winners and Some Surprising Results

4

When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?

08 Aug 2026 (21 Jun 2026 - 01 Aug 2027)

10

30

30 forecasters

08 Aug 2026

(21 Jun 2026 - 01 Aug 2027)

Announcing the Winners of the RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge!

6

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

5

78

78 forecasters

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 ft. Nathan Young!

15

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

11

50

50 forecasters