Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

We're Hiring: Product, Engineering, Communications & Consulting Roles at Metaculus

1 1 comment

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

10 forecasters

In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a previously existing anti-SLAPP law?

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

1 forecaster

What will the Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot (for the 2026 midterms) on December 2, 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

22 comments

45 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

>2193 deaths

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Google DeepMind)

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai)

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.