Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?71% chance777 comments4242 forecasters71%chance
How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2027?76.9 cases (37 - 183)288 comments1515 forecasters76.9 cases (37 - 183)
Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?28.5% chance92929 comments3131 forecasters28.5%chance
Will the 2026 suspected pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia result in 10 fatalities before 2027?0.8% chance51010 comments3737 forecasters0.8%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?43% chance394646 comments481481 forecasters43%chance
What will be the maximum weekly new hospital admissions per 100,000 for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2026/27 season?11111 comments1313 forecasters
What proportion of influenza A will be H1N1 during the 2026/27 influenza season?60.4% (37.3 - 79.3)11010 comments1111 forecasters60.4% (37.3 - 79.3)
How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?>100 cases (98 - >100)1717 comments1717 forecasters>100 cases (98 - >100)
Will the WHO declare an H5 virus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2028?5% chance177 comments1717 forecasters5%chance
How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2026?73.3 animal cases (59.5 - 91.1)21313 comments1818 forecasters73.3 animal cases (59.5 - 91.1)
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.322 comments
Will there be a natural disaster causing at least 10 million deaths before 2101?51% chance455 comments2222 forecasters51%chance
What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?101313 comments7171 forecasters
What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?899 comments8181 forecasters
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
When will the WHO announce that the 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC in DRC and Uganda is over?23 Apr 2028 (24 Oct 2027 - 30 Dec 2028)155 comments1212 forecasters23 Apr 2028 (24 Oct 2027 - 30 Dec 2028)
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?result: no35959 comments221221 forecastersResolvedNo
Will any of these New England conventions be cancelled or rescheduled due to measles?0.5% chance22 comments1212 forecasters0.5%chance