Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

❓

How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?

Current estimate

56.6 Deaths

condition

16 forecasters

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

13 comments

40 forecasters

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Current estimate

0.854%

23 comments

81 forecasters

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

1.5%chance

1.3% this week

12 comments

48 forecasters

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

resultNo

16 comments

44 forecasters

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

21%chance

8% this week

13 comments

3 forecasters

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

20 comments

287 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

24%chance

41 comments

143 forecasters

Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?

resultYes

24 comments

22 forecasters

How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season?

How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season?