Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC40 comments
When will the WHO announce that the 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC in DRC and Uganda is over?27 Mar 2028 (27 Aug 2027 - 30 Nov 2028)144 comments99 forecasters27 Mar 2028 (27 Aug 2027 - 30 Nov 2028)
What will be the nationwide wastewater detection category of Norovirus on August 1, 2026?0 comments136136 forecasters
Will the total number of hospitalizations from cyclosporiasis in Michigan remain under 300 through the end of August 2026?0 comments33 forecasters%chance
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment11 forecaster
How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2026?133 animal cases (91.4 - 220)21111 comments1414 forecasters133 animal cases (91.4 - 220)
Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?65.6% chance755 comments3838 forecasters65.6%chance
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?result: no35959 comments221221 forecastersResolvedNo
How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?39 cases (32 - 51)1313 comments1515 forecasters39 cases (32 - 51)
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?25% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters25%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance374545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?25% chance33 comments2828 forecasters25%chance
Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?30% chance50 comments2626 forecasters30%chance
How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years?121010 comments8181 forecasters
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.1% chance52020 comments104104 forecasters0.1%chance
What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?888 comments8080 forecasters
What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?101212 comments7171 forecasters
What will be the total global disease burden (in DALYs) due to lead exposure in the following years?81010 comments4949 forecasters
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes