Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the WHO Director-General declare a PHEIC for H5N1 before May 1, 2026?result: no111111 comments110110 forecastersResolvedNo
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?1% chance35151 comments199199 forecasters1%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?1% chance51818 comments103103 forecasters1%chance
Will the United States report any locally acquired New World screwworm infestation (in a human or an animal) before 2027?26% chance11111 comments2828 forecasters26%chance
Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?32.9% chance555 comments1313 forecasters32.9%chance
What will be the total global disease burden (in DALYs) due to lead exposure in the following years?81010 comments4949 forecasters
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026?result: yes51717 comments763763 forecastersResolvedYes
Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?result: yes274141 comments143143 forecastersResolvedYes
Will WHO publish at least one new Disease Outbreak News item about cholera or acute watery diarrhoea before April 30, 2026?result: no120120 comments121121 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
Will CDC report at least one newly identified human infection with a novel influenza A virus in the United States before May 1, 2026?result: no121121 comments122122 forecastersResolvedNo
Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?2121 comments1919 forecasters
Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?result: no172323 comments102102 forecastersResolvedNo
Will any of these New England conventions be cancelled or rescheduled due to measles?3% chance22 comments1414 forecasters3%chance
What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?12424 comments2424 forecasters
Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?20% chance51717 comments4949 forecasters20%chance
How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years?121010 comments8181 forecasters
Will the ECDC weekly SARS-CoV-2 test positivity series show four consecutive week-over-week increases for the EU/EEA, before May 1, 2026?result: no114114 comments117117 forecastersResolvedNo
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?104k (80.3k - 160k)377979 comments218218 forecasters104k (80.3k - 160k)