How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?65 cases (55 - 77)1616 comments1616 forecasters65 cases (55 - 77)
How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2027?52.2 cases (25.2 - 104)255 comments1212 forecasters52.2 cases (25.2 - 104)
What will be the maximum weekly new hospital admissions per 100,000 for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2026/27 season?144 comments77 forecasters
Will the WHO declare an H5 virus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2028?5% chance133 comments1212 forecasters5%chance
Will there be a natural disaster causing at least 10 million deaths before 2101?55% chance355 comments2020 forecasters55%chance
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?6% chance51010 comments5757 forecasters6%chance
What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?101313 comments7171 forecasters
What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?899 comments8181 forecasters
What proportion of influenza A will be H1N1 during the 2026/27 influenza season?31.8% (13.4 - 62.2)133 comments77 forecasters31.8% (13.4 - 62.2)
Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC40 comments
When will the WHO announce that the 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC in DRC and Uganda is over?12 May 2028 (02 Nov 2027 - 05 Jan 2029)155 comments1010 forecasters12 May 2028 (02 Nov 2027 - 05 Jan 2029)
What will be the total number of fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years?699 comments7979 forecasters
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2026?64.9 animal cases (53.4 - 91.3)21313 comments1616 forecasters64.9 animal cases (53.4 - 91.3)
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?result: no35959 comments221221 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance252323 comments333333 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?30% chance384444 comments472472 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance365252 comments294294 forecasters10%chance
If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?Jan 2037 (11 Jul 2030 - May 2053)351919 comments166166 forecastersJan 2037 (11 Jul 2030 - May 2053)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?23% chance342727 comments231231 forecasters23%chance