Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?1% chance35151 comments202202 forecasters1%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?result: yes33030 comments148148 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?result: yes29221221 comments357357 forecastersResolvedYes
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?39172172 comments275275 forecasters
Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?31% chance433 comments1919 forecasters31%chance
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?39% chance602323 comments424424 forecasters39%chance
PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics32.7 (22.4 - 45.1)422 comments5757 forecasters32.7 (22.4 - 45.1)