Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments332332 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?28% chance374444 comments471471 forecasters28%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments281281 forecasters
Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?30% chance433 comments1818 forecasters30%chance
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?result: yes30220220 comments357357 forecastersResolvedYes
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?36% chance602323 comments424424 forecasters36%chance
PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics32.7 (22.4 - 45.1)422 comments5757 forecastersResolved19.42