• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
💬
Top Comments
💡
Comments Feed
📈
Indexes
🏆
Leaderboards
⚙️
Labor Hub
🦾
FutureEval
🇺🇸
US Midterms
⚔️
Metaculus Cup
💥
Iran War
❓
Top Questions
🗞️
Current Events
💼
Economy & Business
🏛️
Politics
🌍
Geopolitics
⚙️
Technology
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🦠
Health & Pandemics
💻
Computing and Math
🗳️
Elections
🌱
Environment & Climate
🔬
Natural Sciences
🏀
Sports & Entertainment
⚖️
Law
🚀
Space
🧑‍🤝‍🧑
Social Sciences
🔮
Metaculus
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
💰
Crypto­currencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestionsTournamentsTournaments for AI botsFutureEval
ServicesLaunch a TournamentPrivate InstancesPro Forecasters
CompanyAboutCareersFAQ
ResourcesForecasting ResourcesFor JournalistsAPI
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

41
184184 comments
286
286 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

26
2626 comments
336
336 forecasters
30%chance

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

39% chance

61
2323 comments
425
425 forecasters
39%chance

Will the United States attack Cuba before 2027?

8% chance

8
3030 comments
130
130 forecasters
8%chance

PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics

32.7 (22.4 - 45.1)

4
22 comments
57
57 forecasters
Resolved19.42

Are we in a simulated reality? Part I

result: no

24
1919 comments
146
146 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Are we in a simulated reality? Part II

15% chance

1
2222 comments
281
281 forecasters
15%chance

Playing God Question Series

7
0 comments

Ragnarök Question Series: overview

14
55 comments

Ragnarök Series—results so far

31
3434 comments

The black swan

16
5656 comments

Discussion page for the Fermi Paradox question series

13
22 comments

Economist 2021 Series Announcement

8
1313 comments

What Is the Future of American Financial Surveillance?

10
11 comment