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Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

26% chance

24
2222 comments
329
329 forecasters
26%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25% chance

37
4545 comments
468
468 forecasters
25%chance

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

40
173173 comments
280
280 forecasters

Are we in a simulated reality? Part I

result: no

24
1919 comments
146
146 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Are we in a simulated reality? Part II

15% chance

1
2222 comments
281
281 forecasters
15%chance

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

31% chance

4
33 comments
17
17 forecasters
31%chance

Economist 2021 Series Announcement

8
1313 comments

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36% chance

60
2323 comments
424
424 forecasters
36%chance

PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics

32.7 (22.4 - 45.1)

4
22 comments
57
57 forecasters
Resolved19.42

Playing God Question Series

7
0 comments

Ragnarök Question Series: overview

14
55 comments

Ragnarök Series—results so far

31
3434 comments

The black swan

16
5656 comments

Discussion page for the Fermi Paradox question series

13
22 comments

What Is the Future of American Financial Surveillance?

10
11 comment