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What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Low78.1%

Moderate (or medium or equivalent)18.8%

High (or above, such as Very High)3.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

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97 forecasters

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

15%chance

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0 comments

107 forecasters

Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?

10%chance

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0 comments

94 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-10-22 for the Metaculus question "Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?"?

35%chance

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14 comments

17 forecasters

What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2025-26 season among the following groups in the US?

Adults 65+43

Adults 18+21.4

Children 6 months to 17 years12

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

46 46 comments

Metaculus Cup Fall 2025

9 comments

17 forecasters

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

RSV3.5

Flu9.78

COVID-194.08

13 comments

18 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

10 comments

18 forecasters

What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2025-26 season through the end of April 2026?

Current estimate

80.9%