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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

14
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index

Report: Pro Forecasters Expect Steady NIH and NSF Funding

5
33 comments
Research Agencies Outlook
0 comments
98 forecasters

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

93.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

4
1515 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
0 comments
88 forecasters

What percent of US health-related foreign development assistance for FY 2025 will be disbursed relative to funds allocated at the beginning of the fiscal year?

Latest estimate
82.6%

This question is closed for forecasting.

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
33 comments
AI Pathways Tournament

Platform feature suggestions

112
3.1k3.1k comments
Metaculus Meta
13 comments
101 forecasters

How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?

Current estimate
60.1 Deaths

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
0 comments
107 forecasters

[PRACTICE] What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

Latest estimate
34.3%

This question is closed for forecasting.