• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
❓
Top Questions
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
💎
Metaculus Cup
⏳
AI 2027
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

12
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
98 forecasters

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

93.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
33 comments
AI Pathways Tournament

Platform feature suggestions

112
3.1k3.1k comments
Metaculus Meta

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
11 comments
96 forecasters

How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?

Current estimate
59 Deaths
0 comments
107 forecasters

[PRACTICE] What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

Latest estimate
34.3%

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
108 forecasters

[PRACTICE] What will be the community prediction of this question divided by 2?

Latest estimate
15.8 units

This question is closed for forecasting.

14 comments
85 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%

Forecast the Minimum Wage in Colombia: $1,000 Prize Pool

5
55 comments
Colombia Wage Watch