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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
12
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0
comments
98
forecasters
Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?
93.5%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1
8
3
3
comments
AI Pathways Tournament
Platform feature suggestions
112
3.1k
3.1k
comments
Metaculus Meta
🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
4
0
comments
11
comments
96
forecasters
How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?
Current estimate
59 Deaths
0
comments
107
forecasters
[PRACTICE] What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?
Latest estimate
34.3%
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
108
forecasters
[PRACTICE] What will be the community prediction of this question divided by 2?
Latest estimate
15.8 units
This question is closed for forecasting.
14
comments
85
forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
13%
Microsoft
5%
xAI
3%
14 others
Forecast the Minimum Wage in Colombia: $1,000 Prize Pool
5
5
5
comments
Colombia Wage Watch
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