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🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
3939 comments
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025

Build Your Own Forecasting Bot in 30 Minutes With Our Tutorial Video

8
1616 comments

Introducing Comments of the Week

15
2020 comments
23 comments
81 forecasters

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

1.5%chance
1.3% this week

Suggest questions to launch

121
2.8k2.8k comments
Metaculus Meta
condition

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

16 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

65%
65%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

30%
30%
2
33 comments
16
16 forecasters
Conditional Trees: AI Risk
12 comments
48 forecasters

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

resultNo

Announcing the Winners of the Q2 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

6
0 comments
Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
13 comments
3 forecasters

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?