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Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

6

24

24 forecasters

Platform feature suggestions

113

3.4k 3.4k comments

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

332

332 forecasters

30%chance

Key Findings from Frontiers in Disease Prevention with Coefficient Giving

6

Suggest questions to launch

120

2.8k 2.8k comments

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

111

111 forecasters

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

How much will GiveWell estimate as the cost equivalent to saving a life at the end of 2031?

449 $ (264 - 739)

11

24

24 forecasters

449 $

(264 - 739)

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

44

44 forecasters

Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?

9

29

29 forecasters

Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?

12% chance

1

56

56 forecasters

12%chance

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

60% chance

29

29 forecasters

60%chance

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

3

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

71% chance

6

72

72 forecasters

71%chance

Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?

33.5% chance

3

3 forecasters

33.5%chance

How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?

75.5M $ (45.7M - 119M)

5

23

23 forecasters

Resolved297.919842M $

How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?

83.2M $ (54.3M - 133M)

3

18

18 forecasters

Resolved93.391526M $

How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?

587M $ (398M - 951M)

7

24

24 forecasters

Resolved677.602667M $

Announcing Indexes: Big Questions, Quantified

14

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

35% chance

2

88

88 forecasters

35%chance

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

42

42 forecasters