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Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

8
1 comment1
AI Pathways Tournament

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

Key Factor

US may actively oppose AI safety agreements

45%chance
15% this week

Key Factor

US may actively oppose AI safety agreements

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind40.3%
Microsoft26%
Amazon11%
and 14 others

Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

5
3 comments3

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%chance

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama32.1%
AI-Dystopia25.7%
Singularia16.6%
and 2 others

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25%chance

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

24%chance