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What percentage of Coefficient Giving's grantmaking will go to AI safety in the following years?

5

5 forecasters

Platform feature suggestions

113

3.4k 3.4k comments

Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery

20

Suggest questions to launch

120

2.8k 2.8k comments

Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?

25% chance

1

63

63 forecasters

25%chance

If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

26

337

337 forecasters

30%chance

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

45% chance

2

89

89 forecasters

45%chance

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

3

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

49

49 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

42

42 forecasters

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

87% chance

-1

36

36 forecasters

87%chance

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

40% chance

61

426

426 forecasters

40%chance

Hyperbolic takeoff

7

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

43% chance

39

101 101 comments

472

472 forecasters

43%chance

Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?

result: no

6

43

43 forecasters

ResolvedNo

In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?

3.72 (1.54 - 6.78)

4

37

37 forecasters

Resolved30.31

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10% chance

36

294

294 forecasters

10%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80% chance

6

75

75 forecasters

80%chance

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

5

24

24 forecasters

How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?

75.5M $ (45.7M - 119M)

5

23

23 forecasters

Resolved297.919842M $