How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments2222 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance374545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?47% chance38101101 comments467467 forecasters47%chance
Will "Krantz data" play a critical role in the alignment of artificial superintelligence before 2100?1% chance-455 comments2222 forecasters1%chance
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?35% chance255 comments8585 forecasters35%chance
Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?688 comments2222 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4141 forecasters
What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?46 (40.2 - 51.9)688 comments3838 forecastersResolved37.14
Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?4.86 score (3.88 - 5.58)21212 comments4848 forecasters4.86 score (3.88 - 5.58)
Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?result: no61111 comments4343 forecastersResolvedNo
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?36% chance602323 comments425425 forecasters36%chance
In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?3.72 (1.54 - 6.78)41010 comments3737 forecastersResolved30.31
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?70% chance633 comments7373 forecasters70%chance
Five years after AGI, what % of people will be living in extreme poverty?6.93% (3.56 - 9.09)433 comments3535 forecasters6.93% (3.56 - 9.09)