14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week
14 comments
121 forecasters
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
resultNo
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
7 comments
35 forecasters