0 comments
89 forecasters
How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?
Latest estimate
33.5 users
This question is closed for forecasting.
3 comments
52 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
4 comments
14 forecasters
How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?
Current estimate
44.1 users
21 comments
310 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
7 comments
95 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit83%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
44 comments
436 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
30%chance