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Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

10
22 comments

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
55 comments
AI Pathways Tournament

Oct 29 Update of Activities for Foresight Grant

0 comments
21 comments
305 forecasters

RagnarΓΆk Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
1 comment
20 forecasters

How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?

Current estimate
142M $

Conference Summary: Threshold 2030 - Modeling AI Economic Futures

5
11 comment
100 comments
451 forecasters

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance
169 comments
245 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama31.1%
AI-Dystopia23.6%
Singularia19.3%
26 comments
44 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11%chance
3 comments
27 forecasters

Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?

203112%
20261%