26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
20 comments
287 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24%chance
4 comments
15 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?
Current estimate
19.2%
100 comments
448 forecasters
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
55%chance
3 comments
27 forecasters
Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?
203112%
20261%
6 comments
16 forecasters
If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?
Latest estimate
5011
This question is closed for forecasting.