0 comments
107 forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
8 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
14 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
20%chance
10% this week
14 comments
63 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
Amazon5%
Microsoft4%
7 comments
93 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%