0 comments
107 forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
5 comments
26 forecasters
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
Current estimate
5.61 paths
2 comments
53 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78%chance
21 comments
303 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
7 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
44 comments
433 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%chance