0 comments
107 forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
12 comments
69 forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
15%chance
10% this week
8 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
44 comments
436 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%chance
21 comments
309 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
2 comments
51 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
4 comments
21 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?
Current estimate
30.6%
1 comment
20 forecasters
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?
Current estimate
142M $