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US Democracy Index

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What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?

7 comments

36 forecasters

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

16%chance

6% this week

6 comments

130 forecasters

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

5 comments

66 forecasters

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

20%chance

1 comment

4 forecasters

Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?

15%chance

1 comment

13 forecasters

Will the global methane output from the energy sector be at least 145 Mt for the year 2025?

61%chance

39 comments

76 forecasters

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

Current estimate

Jul 2047

7 comments

31 forecasters

What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years?

5 comments

51 forecasters

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Not before 203174%

2029 or 203020.6%

2027 or 20285.2%

Key Factors

7 comments

32 forecasters

What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?

Will the global methane output from the energy sector be at least 145 Mt for the year 2025?

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years?

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?

Will the global methane output from the energy sector be at least 145 Mt for the year 2025?

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years?

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?