• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
❓
Top Questions
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
💎
Metaculus Cup
⏳
AI 2027
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
6 comments
51 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

48%chance
12 comments
37 forecasters

Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?

64%chance
6% this week
622 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Oct 2033
25 comments
1.2k forecasters

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

16%chance
20 comments
287 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

24%chance
169 comments
243 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
19 comments
34 forecasters

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

00
43 comments
422 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

21%chance
7 comments
16 forecasters

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

resultNo