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🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
4
0
comments
6
comments
51
forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
48%
chance
12
comments
37
forecasters
Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?
64%
chance
6%
this week
622
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Oct 2033
25
comments
1.2k
forecasters
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?
16%
chance
20
comments
287
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24%
chance
169
comments
243
forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama
30%
AI-Dystopia
23.7%
Singularia
18.9%
2 others
27%
19
comments
34
forecasters
When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?
00
43
comments
422
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
21%
chance
7
comments
16
forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?
result
No
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