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45 comments
164 forecasters

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate
11 Nov 2029
0 comments
106 forecasters

Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

24 comments
80 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

50%chance
5% this week

Key Factors

29 comments
162 forecasters

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

30%chance

๐Ÿค– The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
21 comments
305 forecasters

Ragnarรถk Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
630 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Jul 2033

Key Factors

44 comments
434 forecasters

Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance
19 comments
35 forecasters

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

00
7 comments
16 forecasters

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

resultNo