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Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

629 comments

1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

Sep 2033

28 comments

161 forecasters

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

18%chance

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

0 comments

16 comments

71 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

45%chance

21 comments

301 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

26%chance

25 comments

1.3k forecasters

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

15%chance

44 comments

433 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance

3 comments

6 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

Annulled

19 comments

34 forecasters

Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?