Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

❓

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH16%

Microsoft Azure14%

Google Cloud12%

2 comments

38 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH27%

Microsoft Azure5%

Amazon Web Services5%

12 comments

31 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan70%

1 comment

23 forecasters

What percentage of Taiwan Semiconductor's employees will be located outside of Taiwan or China at the end of 2029?

Current estimate

23.8%

2 comments

35 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%

Nvidia5%

Google5%

1 comment

51 forecasters

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99.9%chance

14 comments

40 forecasters

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura31%

AMEC30%

2 comments

46 forecasters

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

33%chance

0 comments

12 forecasters

How much of major electronic design automation (EDA) companies' revenue will come from the Chinese market in the last quarter of 2025?

Current estimate

42.5%