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0
comments
100
forecasters
Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?
30%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
2
forecasters
By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?
78.5%
chance
0
comments
By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?
0
comments
Will processors based on the RISC-V architecture account for at least 30% of global processor unit shipments in the calendar year 2030?
0
comments
By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?
0
comments
31
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
29%
Google Cloud
14.2%
Microsoft Azure
14%
1 other
2
comments
39
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
25%
Microsoft Azure
5%
Amazon Web Services
5%
1 other
AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models
0
comments
AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models
7
comments
119
forecasters
Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?
11%
chance
2
comments
35
forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD
5%
Nvidia
5%
Google
5%
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