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0 comments
100 forecasters

Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?

30%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
2 forecasters

By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?

78.5%chance
0 comments

By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

0 comments

Will processors based on the RISC-V architecture account for at least 30% of global processor unit shipments in the calendar year 2030?

0 comments

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

0 comments
31 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
2 comments
39 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%

AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models

0 comments
AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models
7 comments
119 forecasters

Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?

11%chance
2 comments
35 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%