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US Democracy Index

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Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH30%

Google Cloud16%

Microsoft Azure13%

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Microsoft Azure5%

Amazon Web Services5%

0 comments

3 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

30%chance

12.9% this week

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?

30%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments

36 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%

Nvidia5%

Google5%

2 comments

49 forecasters

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99.9%chance

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

Nata30%

12 comments

32 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam87%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan68%

7 comments

85 forecasters

Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?

3%chance

Key Factors

0 comments

1 forecaster

Will processors based on the RISC-V architecture account for at least 30% of global processor unit shipments in the calendar year 2030?

60%chance