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US Democracy Index

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Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

6 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

21%chance

14% this week

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

90 comments

89 forecasters

Will the interest in “ukraine” change between 2025-10-14 and 2025-10-22 according to Google Trends?

Increasesresult: Yes

Doesn't change56.1%

Decreases19.4%

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?

90%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments

24 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

30%chance

10% this week

15 comments

196 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2%chance

158 comments

903 forecasters

Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?

resultNo

28 comments

230 forecasters

Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?

resultNo