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US Democracy Index

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Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

5 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

7%chance

14% this week

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

90 comments

89 forecasters

Will the interest in “ukraine” change between 2025-10-14 and 2025-10-22 according to Google Trends?

Increasesresult: Yes

Doesn't change56.1%

Decreases19.4%

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?

90%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

163 comments

349 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate

06 Mar 2027

Key Factors

7 comments

86 forecasters

Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?

resultYes

Key Factors

15 comments

195 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

1.1%chance

28 comments

230 forecasters

Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?

resultNo