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US Democracy Index

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Will the EU open at least one accession negotiating cluster with Ukraine between 00:00 UTC on 15 October 2025 and 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments

24 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

30%chance

10% this week

82 comments

1.8k forecasters

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

1.5%chance

Key Factors

3 comments

6 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

21%chance

14% this week

164 comments

350 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate

16 Apr 2027

Key Factors

16 comments

197 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2%chance

59 comments

31 forecasters

Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before January 1, 2025?

resultNo

23 comments

397 forecasters

Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?

resultNo