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Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

4
1313 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
9 comments
46 forecasters

Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?

75 comments
74 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?"?

resultNo
8 comments

Will Poland and Ukraine settle the Przewodów incident before 2024?

Annulled
1 comment
49 forecasters

Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?

resultNo
155 comments
341 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate
09 Nov 2026
45 comments
135 forecasters

Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025?

Pokrovskresult: Yes
Myrnohradresult: No
Kostiantynivkaresult: No
8 comments
74 forecasters

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 202697.2%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 20252.5%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 20250.1%
79 comments
1.8k forecasters

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

6%chance
4% this week
15 comments
195 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2%chance