• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
📈
Market Pulse Challenge
⚡
Current Events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
☀️
Bright Line Watch
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
🌍🤲
Forecast With GiveWell
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Contributed by the Dorsal Heart's Community Page community.

Will The USDA Release A Gene Drive To Deal With An Agricultural Pest Before Jan 1, 2029?

9%chance
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

15%
15%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
7 comments7
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%chance

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

27%chance

The new variants and the next phase of the pandemic

no comments0
condition

Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?

Closed
17 forecasters
if yes
if no

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

118

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

129
13 comments13
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

44%chance
6% this week

Will a fatality of one or more per year due to accidental infections in "select agent" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year?

resultNo

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?

resultNo