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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

00

On the DesignSafe-CI portal, how many publications will there be in June 2025?

0-20result: Yes
21-30result: No
31-40result: No
and 1 other

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

What percentage of Americans will consider AI or advancement of computers/technology to be the most important problem in January 2028?

13.4
% mentioning
143.7 percentage points this week

Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?

20%chance
4% this week

The ʻOumuamua Paradox and the Nature of Interstellar Objects

12
2 comments2
Metaculus Journal Archives

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?