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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

00

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

0.1%chance

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

1%chance

The ʻOumuamua Paradox and the Nature of Interstellar Objects

12
2 comments2
Metaculus Journal Archives

Solar Power: Current Challenges, Encouraging Progress

12
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

The Westinghouse Contingency

3
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest