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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

Annulled

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
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Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Pro scale model by Google?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Flash scale model by Google?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Grok 3 scale model by xAI?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Llama 4 Behemoth scale model by Meta?