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Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

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Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Mar 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

What percentage of developers would say that they are comfortable to delegate the following tasks to AI in 2025:

Ready to delegate refactoring67.3

Ready to delegate improving or optimizing code60.5

Ready to delegate checking code for potential issues52.1

and 3 others

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

2 comments2

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%chance

4.8% this week

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

203644%

203020%

20261%

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

23 Apr 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

Key Factor

What percentage of developers would say that they are comfortable to delegate the following tasks to AI in 2025:

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

Key Factor

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

⚕️Primum Non Nocere: A Physician’s Perspective on AI in Medicine

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

Key Factor

What percentage of developers would say that they are comfortable to delegate the following tasks to AI in 2025:

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

Key Factor

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

⚕️Primum Non Nocere: A Physician’s Perspective on AI in Medicine