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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

00

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Apr 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?

Key Factor

Progress faster than previous year

21
1.8 this week

Key Factor

Progress faster than previous year

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

What percentage of developers would say that they are comfortable to delegate the following tasks to AI in 2025:

Ready to delegate refactoring67.3
Ready to delegate improving or optimizing code60.5
Ready to delegate checking code for potential issues52.1
and 3 others

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

12
2 comments2

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Grok 3 scale model by xAI?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 75% accuracy be reached on LAB-Bench Cloning Scenarios by a Grok 3 scale model by xAI?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a GPT-4.5 scale model by OpenAI?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a GPT-4.1 scale model by OpenAI?