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Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

2

Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?

Forecast revealed

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

What percentage of developers would say that they are comfortable to delegate the following tasks to AI in 2025:

Ready to delegate refactoring67.3

Ready to delegate improving or optimizing code60.5

Ready to delegate checking code for potential issues52.1

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

12

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 75% accuracy be reached on LAB-Bench Cloning Scenarios by a Grok 3 scale model by xAI?