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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

When will the FDA approve a medical device with software that is wholly AI-generated, with no human involvement?

Forecast revealed

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Cybersecurity?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Instrumental Reasoning risk levels?

Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?