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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

⚕️Primum Non Nocere: A Physician’s Perspective on AI in Medicine

10

Metaculus Journal Archives

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?