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Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

4
no comments0

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Feb 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

4%chance

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%chance

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

02 May 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Substance is all you need.

2
1 comment1
AI Progress Essay Contest