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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Feb 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

20 Apr 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

70%chance
21% this week

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

37.7%chance
19.3% this week

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

5%chance
2% this week

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
6 comments6
AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Equitable Distribution of AGI Gains

4
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%