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Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jan 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

12
2 comments2

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

70%chance
20% this week

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

5%chance
2% this week

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
6 comments6
AI Progress Essay Contest

When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?

06 Nov 2029

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

Key Factor

Delay between closed-model capability and public release

12 Jun 2026

Key Factor

Delay between closed-model capability and public release