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Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?
Closed
192
58 comments
58
Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?
Closed
59
38 comments
38
When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezumaโs Revenge?
Closed
23
42 comments
42
When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?
Closed
10
11 comments
11
AI Safety
When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?
2039-10-29
2
15 comments
15
Q3 AI Benchmarking Results
11
14 comments
14
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
51%
32
98 comments
98
AGI Outcomes
Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?
50%
4
13 comments
13
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
98%
221
146 comments
146
AGI Outcomes
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?
2028-08-01
94
72 comments
72
AGI Outcomes
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