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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

May 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

50%chance
14% this week

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
6 comments6
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Substance is all you need.

2
1 comment1
AI Progress Essay Contest

The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec

no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?

Aug 2031

Human-Level Language Models

36
16 comments16

Explainable AI and Trust Issues

8
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives