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Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Apr 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?

60%chance

20% this week

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

3 comments3

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

What percentage of developers would say that they are comfortable to delegate the following tasks to AI in 2025:

Ready to delegate refactoring67.3

Ready to delegate improving or optimizing code60.5

Ready to delegate checking code for potential issues52.1

and 3 others

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

2 comments2

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Pro scale model by Google?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

Key Factor

Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

What percentage of developers would say that they are comfortable to delegate the following tasks to AI in 2025:

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Pro scale model by Google?

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Grok 3 scale model by xAI?

Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

Key Factor

Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

What percentage of developers would say that they are comfortable to delegate the following tasks to AI in 2025:

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Pro scale model by Google?

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Grok 3 scale model by xAI?