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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

49%chance
13% this week

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Human-Level Language Models

36
16 comments16

Substance is all you need.

2
1 comment1
AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Explainable AI and Trust Issues

8
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Deep Learning ourselves into the unknown

3
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

85%chance
5% this week

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

17.8%chance

Threshold 2030: 30 economists & AI policy experts forecast AI's economic impact

5
no comments0