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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Cybersecurity?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Instrumental Reasoning risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

What will be the ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

Key Factor

amount of participating bots affects outcomes

46.1%
2.4 % this week

Key Factor

amount of participating bots affects outcomes

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?