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Oct 17 Update: Bot Templates & Tutorials Available for the Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark
5
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Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?
Closed
192
58 comments
58
Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?
Closed
59
38 comments
38
Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?
60%
11
28 comments
28
๐ Quarterly Cup ๐
Will a rogue Artificial Intelligence system, acting autonomously, directly cause at least the following numbers of deaths before 2050?
100
?
1,000
?
10,000
?
2 others
8 comments
8
Will chess be "weakly solved" by 2035?
Closed
26
9 comments
9
When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezumaโs Revenge?
Closed
23
42 comments
42
What will be the largest customer base of a single romantic AI companion before 2025?
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20
34 comments
34
AI Demonstrations
When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?
Closed
15
16 comments
16
When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?
Closed
10
11 comments
11
AI Safety
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