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Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Mar 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?

75%chance

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Pro scale model by Google?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Llama 4 Behemoth scale model by Meta?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%chance
4.8% this week

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

5%chance

⚕️Primum Non Nocere: A Physician’s Perspective on AI in Medicine

10
no comments0
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