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Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5

What will be the ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

Key Factor

amount of human forecasters impacts scores

10.3 % this week

Key Factor

amount of human forecasters impacts scores

When will a digital model of the C. elegans nervous system reproduce the organism’s full behavioral repertoire with at least 90% accuracy?

Forecast revealed

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, what will be the index value for Labor Productivity for the "Information" sector for the fourth quarter of 2028?

Forecast revealed

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan