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Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?

4%chance
6% this week

What will be the median annual wage for computer and mathematical occupations in the United States in 2025?

114k $

Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

60%chance

Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?

resultNo

When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?

06 Nov 2029

If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?

Ambiguous

If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?

Ambiguous

Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography

12
no comments0

Computability and Complexity

16
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?

12
13 comments13