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Threshold 2030: 30 economists & AI policy experts forecast AI's economic impact

5
no comments0

Two Theories of Inflation

25
10 comments10

Monetary Policy in 2050

10
1 comment1

Will AI-enabled automation constitute more than half of the World's GDP by the end of the Century?

6
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%
Naura31%
Nata30%
and 1 other

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%
≤3 nm90%
≤2 nm49.4%

Will China's GDP exceed the United States' GDP in any year before 2041?

59%chance

Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

15%chance

Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?

60%chance

When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?

Oct 2055