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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

3 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1 comment1

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance

Equitable Distribution of AGI Gains

4
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
3 comments3
Metaculus Journal Archives

Reducing Nuclear Risk Through Improved US-China Relations

13
2 comments2
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Ukraine Conflict Update for 2022-4-5

12
3 comments3
Ukraine Conflict

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

A Case for Nuanced Risk Assessment

10
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance