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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

94%chance
4% this week

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

55%chance

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

100result: Yes
1,000result: Yes
3,00015%

Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?

Key Factor

M23 rebel position supported by Rwanda

25%chance
13% this week

Key Factor

M23 rebel position supported by Rwanda

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
3 comments3
Metaculus Journal Archives

War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

16
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives

Predicting Russia's Failure

3
14 comments14
Metaculus Journal Archives

Reducing Nuclear Risk Through Improved US-China Relations

13
2 comments2
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Ukraine Conflict Update for Monday, 2022-03-14

13
1 comment1
Ukraine Conflict

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21
12 comments12
Metaculus Journal Archives