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Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?

Key Factor

Potential for Iranian retaliation

Key Factor

Potential for Iranian retaliation

Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?

Key Factor

Verification of India's claim of killing 100+ militants

Key Factor

Verification of India's claim of killing 100+ militants

Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

What will be the lowest number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz between June 15, 2025 and September 1, 2025?

←→266.3 percentage points this week

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

1,000result: Yes