• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
📈
Market Pulse Challenge
⚡
Current Events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
☀️
Bright Line Watch
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
🌍🤲
Forecast With GiveWell
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
15 comments15
Metaculus Cup

Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025?

Pokrovsk14%
Myrnohrad11%
Kostiantynivka8%
and 1 other

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

3 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1 comment1

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

2%chance
8% this week

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance

Will the UN Security Council reauthorize the UNIFIL mission at the next UNIFIL review meeting in August?

70%chance
19.5% this week

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

77%chance
4% this week