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Contributed by the Odborný Predikční Tým community.

If there is a violent attack by an individual in the EU with 50 or more victims in the next 5 years, how likely is it that they will be followers of the ideology:

Islámský extremismus55.5%
Pravicový extremismus34.5%
Levicový a anarchistický extremismus5%
and 1 other

The Israel-Hamas War: Forecasting in Unprecedented Times

13
1 comment1
Israel-Gaza Conflict

Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?

resultNo

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

42%chance

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

2%chance

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

1%chance

Ukraine Conflict Update for Friday, 2022-03-25

9
3 comments3
Ukraine Conflict

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Ukraine16%
Israel15%
Pakistan10%
and 5 others

What will be the total number of fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

00