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Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

30%chance
53% this week

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

94%chance
4% this week

Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?

Key Factor

Israel attacked Iran's capital

resultYes

Key Factor

Israel attacked Iran's capital

Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?

resultYes

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

57%chance

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

20%chance
19% today

What will be the lowest number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz between June 15, 2025 and September 1, 2025?

35.2
tankers
→←418.2 percentage points this week

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

100result: Yes
1,000result: Yes
3,00015%

Contributed by the Odborný Predikční Tým community.

If there is a violent attack by an individual in the EU with 50 or more victims in the next 5 years, how likely is it that they will be followers of the ideology:

How many citations will Nassim Taleb have on June 28, 2025?

result40.671k citations