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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win77.6%
Nathan Young win20.4%
Other2%

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal

7
61 comments61

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

94%chance
4% this week

Platform feature suggestions

112
2946 comments2946
Metaculus Meta

What will be the ranking of the All-In podcast on the Spotify Podcast Charts on June 28, 2025?

Forty-first through fiftiethresult: Yes
Twenty-first through fortiethresult: No
Fifty-first through sixtiethresult: No
and 2 others

Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

Annulled

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

69%chance

Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

35%chance

What will be the ranking of the Stuff You Should Know podcast on the Spotify charts on July 1, 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting.
Latest Community predictions were:

1-2563.2%
26-4521.7%
46-559.8%
and 1 other