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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

5
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win82.3%
Nathan Young win15.6%
Other2.1%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

resultNo

What will be the ranking of the Stuff You Should Know podcast on the Spotify charts on July 1, 2025?

≥56result: Yes
1-25result: No
26-45result: No
and 1 other

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

95%chance
3% this week

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

13 Apr 2029

Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

Annulled

What will be the ranking of the All-In podcast on the Spotify Podcast Charts on June 28, 2025?

Forty-first through fiftiethresult: Yes
Twenty-first through fortiethresult: No
Fifty-first through sixtiethresult: No
and 2 others

What will be the CDC's In-Season Flu Severity Assessment for 2025-2026?

Forecast revealed in 2 days