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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

4
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win71.8%
Nathan Young win23.8%
Other4.3%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

00

What will be the CDC's In-Season Flu Severity Assessment for 2025-2026?

Moderate57.9%
High23.2%
Low (or lower)15.8%
and 1 other

Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?

5%chance
30% this week

When will 5 gigatons carbon capture in a year at a price of less than $10 per ton be achieved?

Forecast revealed in 5 days

When will a global sensing system be operational that enables real-time, 3D atmospheric tomography at a resolution sufficient to model small-scale convective processes?

Forecast revealed in 5 days

When will a digital model of the C. elegans nervous system reproduce the organism’s full behavioral repertoire with at least 90% accuracy?

Forecast revealed in 5 days

Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?

Key Factor

Hurricane forecasts suggest above-average season

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Key Factor

Hurricane forecasts suggest above-average season