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Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%chance
13% today

Contributed by the Odborný Predikční Tým community.

If there is a violent attack by an individual in the EU with 50 or more victims in the next 5 years, how likely is it that they will be followers of the ideology:

Islámský extremismus55.5%
Pravicový extremismus34.5%
Levicový a anarchistický extremismus5%
and 1 other

Predicting Russia's Failure

3
14 comments14
Metaculus Journal Archives

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21
12 comments12
Metaculus Journal Archives

War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

16
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives
condition

EU and US Cut Diplomatic Ties before 2051?

4 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2123

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2103
1
no comments0

Will there be a large-scale power outage in the Continental Europe synchronous grid affecting multiple countries before 2028?

42%chance
8% this week

Ukraine Conflict Update for Monday, 2022-03-14

13
1 comment1
Ukraine Conflict

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

0.5%chance

PhilPapers survey mini-series: Support for open borders

Ambiguous