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Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?

0.1%chance
37.9% this week

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
15 comments15
Metaculus Cup

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

75%chance
55.5% this week
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1 comment1

Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

Key Factor

ease of filing FEC Form 1

62%chance
8% today

Key Factor

ease of filing FEC Form 1

Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?

resultNo

Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?

2%chance
3% this week

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

77%chance

Will Doge claim a total savings of $200 billion or more on July 1, 2025?

resultNo